Thailand’s rice industry is facing growing uncertainty after the Thai Rice Exporters Association warned that the country may lose its share of the Hom Mali fragrant rice market in the United States to Vietnam. The concern follows the US government’s recent imposition of a 36% reciprocal tariff on Thai rice, which is expected to raise the price of Thai Hom Mali to approximately US$1,400 per tonne, up from the previous US$900–1,000 range.
In contrast, Vietnamese fragrant rice currently sells for between US$600 and US$700 per tonne. Although Vietnam is subject to a 46% reciprocal tariff, its rice is still projected to be considerably cheaper than Thai exports. Last year, Thailand exported 850,000 tonnes of Hom Mali rice to the US, while Vietnam shipped just 40,000 tonnes. However, the significant price gap may lead US importers to shift their sourcing preferences toward Vietnamese rice.
To preempt the tariff impact, US importers have already purchased around 100,000 tonnes of Thai Hom Mali rice ahead of the new policy. Chukiat Opaswongse, president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, has called on Thai authorities to assist exporters and accelerate trade talks with the United States.
Deputy leader of the Move Forward Party, Sirikanya Tansakul, said that the tariffs are part of broader US efforts to address its trade deficit with Thailand and promote domestic manufacturing. She noted that the final scale of tariffs will depend on the outcome of bilateral negotiations. A failure to reach favorable terms could reduce Thailand’s GDP growth by 1% or more this year, she warned. If a compromise results in a 25% tariff, the impact on GDP could be limited to 0.8%, or 0.3% if the rate is negotiated down to 10%.
Among the Thai exports most vulnerable to the new tariffs are communication devices, computer disc drives, car tires, and electrical appliances. Sirikanya also cautioned that the policy might lead foreign investors to postpone or abandon projects in Thailand. She urged the government to examine the service sector, where US firms continue to benefit from a longstanding trade surplus with Thailand.
