The Thai government has expressed concern following President Donald Trump’s executive order implementing new tariffs on imports from several countries, with Thailand facing one of the highest rates at 36%. While Trump publicly cited this figure, the official annex to the order indicated a rate of 37%, highlighting discrepancies in communication. These tariffs are part of the broader “Reciprocal Trade and Tariffs” initiative, mandating a minimum 10% tariff across all trading partners and aimed at rebalancing US trade deficits.
According to the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC), the tariffs could cost the Thai economy up to 359 billion baht and reduce GDP growth by nearly 2%, leading the institution to revise its 2025 GDP forecast to just 1%. UTCC President Thanavath Phonvichai noted that the sectors most affected include steel, aluminium, and automobiles, with projected export losses of over $650 million. The economic blow is further compounded by a recent earthquake, pushing total estimated losses to 375 billion baht.
In response, Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra said the Thai government is adopting both short- and long-term strategies to support exporters. Short-term actions focus on negotiations and relief measures, while long-term efforts will involve market diversification to reduce dependence on the US. The administration also acknowledged the need to restructure Thailand’s own tariff system in anticipation of reciprocal measures.
Businesses and trade bodies have started outlining proposals to mitigate the effects. The Thai National Shippers’ Council (TNSC) suggested accelerating free trade talks with other countries, encouraging US imports to reduce the trade imbalance, and leveraging ASEAN alliances for greater bargaining power. There are also calls for reforms in logistics and customs systems to enhance competitiveness and reduce operating costs.
The potential for Chinese goods to flood the Thai market as exporters seek alternative routes was also flagged, particularly in sectors such as electronics, machinery, and textiles. The government has been urged to strengthen import inspection processes to prevent circumvention of US trade rules through Thai channels.
In the ready-to-eat food sector, industry leaders anticipate significant disruptions, particularly for canned goods like tuna and vegetables, which could lose ground to regional competitors. Meanwhile, the jewellery sector, which exports 10–20% of its output to the US, is also bracing for a downturn.
Among the proposed relief measures are interest rate reductions, support for domestic producers, and careful monitoring of trade impacts across sectors. Thai exporters have been advised to stay in close contact with US partners regarding shipment schedules and existing inventories.
Senior industry and trade representatives including Dhanakorn Kasetrsuwan of TNSC, Visit Limlurcha of the Thai Future Food Trade Association, and Suriyon Sriorathaikul of Beauty Gems were among those calling for swift government intervention to ensure Thailand remains competitive in the evolving global trade landscape.
